Iran and Trump’s Hormuz ultimatum: four options – Padovanews

“Time is running out for Iran.” The deadline set by Donald Trump for reopening the Strait of Hormuz is approaching. The U.S. president has frozen attacks on Tehran’s power plants and energy infrastructure until April 6. Absent significant changes, the conflict is expected to enter a new phase. The Strait of Hormuz, crucial to about 20% of global oil trade, has been effectively blocked by Iran for weeks, affecting crude prices and fuel costs, with notable increases in many countries, including Italy.

Iran is effectively controlling traffic through the strait on a discretionary basis. The Islamic Republic has authorized passage for ships carrying essential goods and humanitarian supplies to its ports via the Strait of Hormuz, Tasnim news agency reports, citing an official letter that says vessels bound for Iranian ports – including those already in the Gulf of Oman – must coordinate with authorities and follow established protocols for transit.

In recent hours a second Turkish ship passed through the Strait, Ankara’s Transport Minister Abdulkadir Uraloglu said, noting that at the outbreak of the conflict on February 28 there were 15 Turkish-owned vessels in the Strait: two have left, four did not request departure, leaving nine still to be moved.

In the past days several ships have been allowed to transit Hormuz safely after approval from the Pasdaran. On Friday authorities announced that a container ship operated by the French shipping company CMA CGM had passed through, believed to be the first Western-owned commercial vessel to transit Hormuz in 36 days.

Europe’s proposals

Europe is trying to present measures to resolve the situation and end the crisis. A New York Times analysis headlined “Europe’s options for Hormuz: few and risky” references a proposal by Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani at a UK-hosted video conference two days earlier to create a “humanitarian corridor” to allow safe passage for fertilizers and other essential goods. The plan was one of several ideas from Europe and beyond intended to prevent the war’s consequences from triggering food shortages in Africa.

The proposal was not adopted, and the meeting ended without a concrete plan to reopen the strait, militarily or otherwise, the U.S. newspaper reports, noting that “European leaders face pressure from President Trump to commit military resources, end Iran’s blockade of the strait, and counter the worsening global energy and economic crisis.” So far Europeans have declined to send warships and continue to debate how to free up Hormuz, through which about 20% of global oil and gas flows.

The NYT suggests that difficulty reaching a common plan partly reflects Europe’s slow diplomatic machinery and the large number of countries, including Gulf states, that have a stake in securing the strait after the conflict ends. Many states involved in talks, such as Italy and Germany, have insisted any international effort be conducted under the United Nations’ umbrella, which could further slow action.

The 4 options to ‘unblock’ the Strait of Hormuz

The newspaper outlines four possible options available to Europe, Gulf states, and other countries – none of which is foolproof even if hostilities pause.

1. Naval escorts – French President Emmanuel Macron has repeatedly raised the possibility of French warships escorting commercial vessels through the strait after the conflict. U.S. officials have urged Europeans and other allies, such as Japan, to escort ships flying their flags. Escort operations are costly, and their air defense systems alone might not stop certain types of attacks, such as drone strikes, if Iran resumes firing.

2. Mine clearance – Officials from Germany, Belgium and others say they are ready to send minesweepers to clear explosives from the strait after the war. However, Western military leaders are not convinced Iran has actually mined the strait, in part because some Iranian ships still transit it. Thus, while minesweepers could be part of an escort mission, they might have little to do.

3. Air support – Deploy fighter jets and drones to intercept any Iranian aerial attacks on ships. U.S. officials have pushed Europe to provide such capabilities, but this option would also be expensive and is not guaranteed to succeed. Iran can attack vessels with a single combatant on a small boat, and a few successful incidents could be enough to deter insurers and shipowners from attempting transit.

4. Combine the above options with diplomacy – Use negotiations and economic pressure to deter Iran from future attacks, supported by a mix of military measures to enforce protections. This effort would extend beyond Europe: Germany’s foreign ministry has invited China to use its influence with Iran constructively to help end hostilities. So far negotiations have had limited success in stopping the fighting, but they may be Europe’s best available option in the absence of a better one.

And if none of this works? Iranian officials said this week they would continue to control traffic through the strait after the war. They have reportedly prepared plans to levy tolls on ships transiting Hormuz, which under international law should remain a free waterway.

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